Huh?

So what am I babbling about now – magic bullets and rain forests???

I think these are useful metaphors to explain humanity’s drive to pursue new technology, its love-hate feeling towards technology and the development of technology.

So first, let’s explain what I mean by magic bullets…. I am not talking about the appliance.

“Magic Bullet” is an idiom – it refers to something being perceived as an ideal perfect solution for a difficult situation that has no drawback, risks, and needs little investment of effort time or money.  It also holds an implication of the solution being unable to live up to its promise, being ineffective and having unaccounted long-term costs.

I think that reasonable people realize that “free” ideal solutions to difficult situations are far and few between, and maybe even non-existent.

That’s why difficult problems are difficult problems to begin with.  The solutions are alway imperfect.  Sometimes solutions are costly.  Sometimes compromises are needed.  Sometimes, there are not any good solutions.  We all know that the concept of magic bullets is bunk.

And Yet….

And yet, they are everywhere around us in society because they are soooooo appealing.

Want to lose weight and look like Daniel Craig/Beyonce, but do not want to spend any time exercising, building discipline or dragging yourself to the gym?  Well, I have a magic diet for you….

Want to become a billionaire but don’t want to spend any late nights working or risk any money and just go straight to the Miami CSI boat-set bikini girl rich person liefstyle (without becoming a murder victim)?  Well, I got a Nigerian prince I can introduce you to…

It’s too good to be true but we can’t help believing it because it would be so convenient if it was true…

Just picture your mind’s attitude to Magic Bullet’s as Matthew McConaughey’s character from Dazed and Confused attitude towards highschool girls…

Where does Technology come in?

Now, I think most people are reasonably wary of magic bullets in finance, personal improvement, etc.  The same cannot be said about technological issues.

In fact, I think we are most easily seduce by magic bullets in technology with the possible exception of politics.

That’s not to say all magic bullets are fraudulent and useless – sometimes they are effective and useful – its just their effectiveness is oversold.  Instead of being used in conjunction with other solutions (which would have provided an effective solution), they are used in exclusion to others and seen as… well a magic bullet..

Want to have any amazing body?  Usually it takes a number of different solutions in conjunction including a regimented diet and exercise.

And, in my opinion, the allacious tendency of thinking in magic bullets really distorts our expectations of technology and long-term investment decisions in technology.

And for me, it is easy to understand why.

Technology is so tangible, the explosion of technology advancement and the immediate gratifying impacts of technology are so powerful.

It is the 1930s.  Imagine people are dying around you, like they have for centuries from diseases such as small pox, tuberculosis, and measles.  Sadly, your loved one is dying, just like many do.  The doctor comes by and gives your loved one a new medicine called pencillin and they miraculously recover.  It’s a reprieve and you thank the gods of technology in their perfect infallible wisdom.

It’s hard to not see that as a magic bullet.

Now, other advancements in humanity may have been even more important for our living standard, such as the concept of limited sovereign power, democratic governments, individual rights and philosphy, but somehow they just don’t have the same gratifying immediate effect for most.

Pretend, your country decides to hold free and open elections for the first time – yeah!

Triumphantly you walk up to the ballot box and make your vote…. and well, on an immediate individual level nothing changes usually.  Long-term there are changes, but not quick enough to be gratifying.  Even if the democractic government improves the economy, wealth distribution and makes you more prosperous over time… it’s not like you get $20,000 after you vote (note: if you do, something quite shady is going on).

The magic bullet (pencillin) seems so perfect, no downsides.  And yet, there is a downside to everything.

For instance, pencillin (like other antibiotics) does not permanently reduce the virtulence of diseases.  It provides a temporary historical respite as the bacteria will naturally evolve resistances to pencillin.  In fact, our improper societal use of pencillin on people and animals (for instance, it is used to raise animals in close proximity) is actually speeding up the process of bacteria pencillin resistance.

In fact, sometimes magic bullets may ironically offer the worst of both worlds.  For instance, the use of pencillin, other antibiotics and vaccines has naturally eliminated population immunity to some diseases (for instance, few people in the world have contact with polio now).  If those diseases return with pencillin immunity and we have no natural immunity to these diseases in the population, it could be very problematic.

Well, that is a happy note to end on, eh?

Don’t worry, there is a lot of promise too, but that is for next time. And I will actually discuss sustainable technology – I promise.

However, I will leave it here today.  Next time, I will discuss the rain forest metaphor and then see how these metaphors apply to our electrical infrastructure.